Survival of the Machines

Survival of the Machines

  • If we’re going to have superhuman artificial intelligence before 2030, then why do we still have to have human translators, human paralegals, human bookkeepers and human teachers in 2008? Artificial intelligence is nowhere close to being able to match even mediocre human abilities in those occupations today.
  • So I’ll not even ask about human novelists, human lawyers and judges, human tax accountants and human university researchers. Anybody who thinks that artificial intelligence research will surpass the degree of intelligence required for these occupations before 2030 is either (a) a true believer in a religious cult or (b) trying to scam some research grants from the gullible. In the case of (a), they’ll go away when they find a new utopian dream to pursue. In the case of (b), the money would be better spent elsewhere.
  • But of course “surpass human intelligence before 2030” is meaningless anyway because it suffers from terminal vagueness. What kind of intelligence, underlying what kind of abilities? Measured how? Surpass the intelligence of a human with an IQ of 45, or of one with an IQ of 185? Surpass the intelligence of any human?
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